相关链接：《保险研究》2013年第3期目录及摘要
保险公司上市对企业发展的真实效果研究
边文龙
（北京大学国家发展研究院，北京 100871）
［摘 要］ 结合2012年以来宏观计量领域政策评估（Treatment Effect）方法的最新进展和保险公司的可得数据，衡量了保险公司上市对企业年度资产总额和月度保费的真实效果。以中国太保为例，公司上市显著地提高了企业的资产总额，资产总额与假设没有上市的情形相比平均每年增加48.19亿元；公司上市对月度保费的变化没有显著的影响。创新点在于为评估保险业即将出台的政策的可行性和现有政策的有效性提供了一套可供选择的计量方法。
［关键词］ 政策评估；宏观计量；保险公司上市
Effects of Going Public for Insurance Companies in China
Bian Wenlong
（National School of Development,Peking University，Beijing 100871）
Abstract：This article made use of the latest development of treatment effect in macroeconometrics and available data from insurance companies to measure the real effects of insurer’ s going public in terms of their total assets and monthly premiums. Taking China Pacific Insurance for example，public floating increased its total assets significantly by about 4.8 billion yuan a year，however，it didn’t have much effect on monthly premiums. The main contribution of this article was to provide a method to measure the feasibility of a new policy in China’s insurance industry and the effectiveness of existing policies.
Key words：treatment effect;macroeconometrics;going public of insurance companies
我国巨灾保险基金规模研究——以地震风险为例
田 玲 姚 鹏
（武汉大学经济与管理学院，湖北 武汉 430072）
［摘 要］ 我国要建立巨灾保险基金的提议由来已久，然而包括理论研究上的缺乏等因素导致巨灾保险基金迟迟难以推出。以地震风险为例，通过对历史地震损失数据的统计分析，利用随机模拟技术对地震风险进行模拟；采用在险价值（VaR）方法，对我国的地震保险基金规模进行测度。研究结果表明，我国地震保险基金的规模随着风险容忍度与再保险附加费率的不同差别较大，从最小的8.56亿元到最大的216亿元不等。最后，对该测度结果进行了分析并提出了相应的政策建议。
［关键词］ 巨灾保险基金；随机模拟； VaR
The Scale of Catastrophe Insurance Fund in China—A case study on earthquake risk
Tian Ling, Yao Peng
（Economic and Management School，Wuhan University，Hubei Wuhan 430072）
Abstract：The voice of building up the catastrophe insurance fund is looming large in China. The lack of relative theory，however，impedes the agenda. This paper studied historical earthquakerelated damages statistics and simulated earthquake risk stochastically in mainland China. Then it calculated the scale of catastrophe (earthquake) insurance fund using stochastic simulation and VaR. The results showed that the scale varied greatly with different risk tolerance coefficients and reinsurance premium rates，ranging from RMB 856 million to RMB 21.6 billion. The paper offered some suggestions in the end.
Key words：catastrophe insurance fund;stochastic simulation;VaR
田玲在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
我国财产保险公司融资效率的DEA比较分析
初立苹 粟 芳
(上海财经大学金融学院，上海 200433)
［摘 要］ 从财险公司融资投入和产出的角度入手，利用DEA模型分析比较2007年～2011年财险公司在融资效率方面的差别。通过CCR模型、BCC模型和超效率模型的计算，得到了财险公司的融资技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率和超效率。分析结果表明，财险行业大致有30%的公司能有效运用通过内部、债务和权益三个融资渠道所融通的资金达到融资有效率。相对而言，财险公司的融资规模效率比纯技术效率要好一些；中资财险公司在融资的超效率和纯技术效率方面的表现都略比外资财险公司要好，融资规模效率则相差不大。同时，财险业的融资效率与外界因素密切相关，融资技术效率、融资纯技术效率和规模效率在2007年～2011年间都随着经济环境的波动而不断波动。最后，我们通过投影分析还得到各家财险公司在投入方面所存在的冗余或在产出方面所存在的不足，供各家财险公司制定提高融资效率的策略时参考。
［关键词］ 财产保险；融资效率；DEA分析
DEA Analysis of the Financing Efficiency for Nonlife Insurance Companies in China
Chu Liping，Su Fang
(School of Finance of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics，Shanghai 200433)
Abstract：Using the DEA model，the financing efficiency of nonlife insurance companies in China was compared on the foundation of financing input and output during the period of 2007-2011. After calculated through CCR，BCC and Super efficiency DEA models，we got the financing technical efficiency，pure technical efficiency，scale efficiency and superefficiency of nonlife insurance companies. The results showed that，30% nonlife insurance companies in China could use capitals obtained from internal，debt and equity sources effectively. Comparatively，their financing scale efficiency was better than pure efficiency. The superefficiency and pure efficiency of Chinese companies were better than that of foreign companies，but the scale efficiency of them were almost the same. Secondly，the financing efficiency was affected by external factors.They changed in each year from 2007-2011 with the change of economics. At last，using projection analysis，we also revealed that there were some problems for those low efficiency companies，such as the redundant input or low output. Hopefully，such information might be useful for nonlife insurance companies when they try to improve the financing efficiency.
Key words：nonlife insurance;financing efficiency;DEA Model
初立苹在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
粟芳在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
文化因素对非寿险消费的影响——基于面板数据的实证研究
完颜瑞云
(西南财经大学保险学院，四川 成都 611130)
［摘 要］ 众多研究成果表明，非寿险产品的消费受到经济、制度和人口统计等方面因素的影响，但由于非寿险产品的购买决策最后都要落实到自然人身上，而自然人并不是完全理性的，在进行经济决策时可能还受到非经济因素如文化因素的影响，所以在研究非寿险需求影响因素时有必要放松消费者是理性经济人的假定。采用Hofstede的文化维度的文化变量作为模型假设，选择中国大陆31个省市自治区1999年～2010年的相关数据建立面板数据模型对非寿险需求影响因素进行了实证研究。研究发现，当把经济变量和人口统计变量作为控制变量来分析文化对非寿险需求影响时，权力距离、个体主义和不确定性规避对非寿险需求存在显著的负影响，男性/女性主义对非寿险需求有显著的正影响。
［关键词］ 文化维度；非寿险消费；面板数据
The Impacts of Cultural Factors on Consumption of Nonlife Insurance—Based on an exponential panel data analysis
Wanyan Ruiyun
(The school of Insurance of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan Chengdu 611130)
Abstract：A large number of studies examine the way economy，mechanism and demographics affect consumption patterns of nonlife insurance. However，the purchase decision for nonlife insurance products is made by a natural person，and natural persons are not completely rational. Therefore，their decisionmaking process will be affected by noneconomic factors such as cultural factors. Due to this reason，we should not stick to the rational economic person assumption too rigidly when researching on factors affecting nonlife insurance consumption.Our research hypotheses were tested empirically using Hofstede’s cultural dimensions，and data from 1999-2010 across 31 provinces from mainland China. The findings showed that when using economic and demographic determinants as the controlling variables，power distance，individualism and uncertainty avoidance had significant，negative effects whereas masculinity/femininity had a significantly positive effect on nonlife insurance demand.
Key words：cultural dimensions;nonlife insurance consumption;panel data
完颜瑞云在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
中国少数民族地区保险业发展的现状探析——以民族和宗教因素为视角
ZAIG模型在车险定价中的应用研究
孙维伟 张连增
（南开大学经济学院风险管理与保险学系，天津 300071）
［摘 要］ 近年来，国内财险公司利用广义线性模型（GLMs）对非寿险业务，尤其是车险业务进行建模和精算分析，使得精算技术人员对保险数据的处理更加细致、科学和公平。基于位置、尺度和形状的广义可加模型（GAMLSS）是GLMs、GAMs、DGLMs和GLMMs等的最新拓展，在介绍该模型的定义、算法和模型实现的基础上，以其框架下的零调整逆高斯模型（ZAIG）为一个特例，讨论了其在财险公司财险定价中的应用研究。最后，以瑞士汽车第三者责任保险的一组损失数据为例进行了实证分析，说明了零调整逆高斯模型在车险费率厘定中是一种较合理的方法，为精算技术人员提供参考和借鉴。
［关键词］ 汽车保险定价；基于位置、尺度和形状的广义可加模型；零调整逆高斯模型
Application of the ZAIG Model in Auto Insurance Pricing
Sun Weiwei，Zhang Lianzeng
(Department of Risk Management and Insurance，School of Economics，NankaiUniversity，Tianjin 300071)
Abstract：In recent years，domestic P&C companies have used generalized linear models (GLMs) in the modeling and actuarial analysis of nonlife insurance business，especially auto insurance business，which makes insurance data processing more meticulous，scientific and fair for the actuarial technical staff.Generalized additive models for location，scale and shape (GAMLSS) is the latest expansion of the GLMs，GAMs，DGLMs and GLMMs.On the basis of introducing the definition of the models，algorithms and implementations，using the zero adjusted inverse Gaussian regression model (ZAIG) under the GAMLSS framework as a special case，the paper discussed its application in the study of nonlife insurance pricing. Finally，this study empirically examined a classic Swedish data set of thirdparty automobile insurance claims，and arrived at the conclusion that the zero adjustment inverse Gaussian model was a rational method in automobile ratemaking which could provide reference for actuarial technicians.
Key words：auto insurance pricing；generalized additive models for location，scale and shape；zero adjusted inverse gaussian model
孙维伟在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
张连增在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
我国财产保险区域差异与宏观经济的关系研究——基于省际面板数据的实证分析
行驶里程数对车险净保费的影响研究——基于公路里程对交通事故损失的影响视角
中国人口老龄化对人身保险市场发展的影响分析——基于省际面板数据的经验分析
我国寿险业发展潜力研究
童光荣 刘 畅 邹芸螺
(武汉大学经济与管理学院，湖北 武汉 430072)
［摘 要］ 随着城市化的建设和人口的逐步老龄化，我国居民对人寿保险的需求正不断上升。而经济的较高速发展和收入的稳步提高，为寿险业的发展提供了强有力的经济支持。从国际保险深度与保险密度的横向对比来看，我国寿险业的发展与世界平均水平有着极大差距，我国寿险业市场还有巨大的潜力等待挖掘。本文从经济理论出发，借助国际、国内相关经济数据，分析影响寿险业潜力的因素。通过对比世界平均水平、寿险业发达国家的平均水平，构建我国寿险业市场潜力测算指标体系。利用建立的结构模型和趋势模型，尝试对我国寿险业市场潜力进行测算和预测。研究结果表明，我国寿险业仍具有超出现有水平数倍乃至数十倍的潜力，不论是消费者还是生产者均对我国寿险业市场潜力的增长和开发均有重要影响。
［关键词］ 寿险业；市场潜力；保险密度
A Research on the Development Potential of China’s Life Insurance Market
Tong Guangrong，Liu Chang，Zou Yunluo
Economics and Management School of Wuhan University，Wuhan Hubei 430072)
Abstract：With the urbanization construction and the gradual aging of our population，the need for life insurance is rising. And the rapid economic development and the steady income increase strongly support development of the life insurance industry. However，compared with the penetration and insurance density of international markets，there is still a great gap with the world average. In another words，there is huge potential awaiting us in China’s life insurance market. In this paper，starting from economic theory，we made analysis of the factors which affected the potential of the life insurance industry，with the international and domestic economic data. By comparing with the average of developed countries and with the world average，we built an index system to project the market potential of China’s life insurance industry. In the end，we tried to calculate and predict the market potential of China’s life insurance industry with the structural model and trend model. The results showed that China’s life insurance industry still had the potential to exceed the current level by several times or even dozens of times. And both consumers and the producers had important impacts on growth and development of China’s life insurance industry’s potential.
Key words：life insurance;market potential;insurance density
中国人口结构对人身保险市场发展的影响研究
张 冲
(西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心，四川 成都 611130)
［摘 要］ 基于我国31个省、市、自治区2004年～2011年的面板数据，运用动态面板广义矩估计（GMM），考察了我国人口结构变化对人身保险市场发展的影响。研究结果发现，人口年龄结构中的少儿抚养系数对人身保险市场发展显著的影响存在正向，但是老年抚养系数对其影响不显著；人口社会结构中的已婚人口比重、第二产业和第三产业从业人口比重对人身保险市场发展也均有显著正向影响，平均家庭户规模和平均受教育年限对其影响不显著。人口地域结构中的城镇人口比重对人身保险市场发展有正向的显著影响。
［关键词］ 人口结构；人身保险；广义矩估计
The Impacts of Demographic Structure on the Development of the Personal Insurance Market in China
Zhang Chong
(Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Sichuan chengdu 611130)
Abstract：This paper used the method of GMM to analyze the impacts of demographic structure on the development of the personal insurance market with the panel data from Chinese provinces during the period of 2004-2011. The results suggested that the youth dependency ratio had a positive impact on the development of the personal insurance market，but the old dependency ratio did not have a significant impact on it. The proportion of married population and the proportion of people who worked in the secondary and tertiary industries also had positive impacts on the development of the personal insurance market，but the average household size and the average length of education didn’t have significant impacts on it. The proportion of urban population had a positive impact on the development of the personal insurance market.
Key words：demographic structure;personal insurance;Generalized Method of Moments
国有保险公司企业文化评价：基于优势特征识别方法的研究
赵希男 欧新煜 奚锦燕
(东北大学工商管理学院，辽宁 沈阳 110819)
［摘 要］ 本文以竞优思想为指导，在构建国有保险公司企业文化的评价指标体系的基础上，依托二元语义信息处理、理想点评价模型和聚类分析方法，提出了一种既能充分挖掘评价者群体意见趋向，又能充分体现被评价对象个体优势特征的评价方法。本研究方法在尊重企业文化评价个体优势特征的同时，进一步分析企业文化总体特征，实现了结构特征评价与总体水平分析相结合，以求达到对国有保险公司企业文化的优势特征进行全面、客观的评价目的。研究表明：虽然国有保险公司的企业文化总体发展状况较好，但在行为文化和精神文化方面存在一定程度的欠缺。国有保险公司要从根本上扭转现阶段出现的增长乏力、业绩下滑的不利局面，应当注重创新发展；尊重市场的力量，逐步“去行政化”；积极推动企业文化建设向企业文化管理的转变，真正实现从“心的一致到行的一致”。
［关键词］ 企业文化评价；优势特征识别；竞优评析；国有保险公司
Corporate Culture Evaluation of Stateowned Insurance Companies:
A Study Based on the Method of Advantage Characteristic Identification
Zhao Xinan，Ou Xinyu，Xi Jinyan
(School of Business Administration，Northeastern University，LiaoNing Shenyang 110819)
Abstract：Under the guidance of the competitive advantage thought，on the basis of construction of stateowned insurance companies’ corporate culture evaluation index system，relying on dual linguistic information processing and evaluation model of ideal points and the cluster analysis method，this paper proposed a new evaluation method，which could fully capture the group opinion trend of evaluators and also fully reflected the individual advantage characteristics of the object being evaluated. For the purpose of making a comprehensive and objective evaluation of the corporate culture advantage characteristics of statedowned insurance companies，the method fully considered the individual advantage characteristics of a corporate culture,while further analyzing the overall characteristics. It therefore achieved combination of the structural characteristic evaluation and the overall level analysis. The results showed that the corporate culture of statedown insurance companies was working well though there were some shortcomings in behavioral culture and spiritual culture. If stateowned insurance companies wanted to fundamentally reverse the current unfavorable situation of sluggish growth and decline in performance，they should focus on innovational developments，give greater respect for market forces，gradually remove "the administrator mentality"，actively promote transformation from the corporate culture construction to corporate culture management，and truly realize the transition from mindconsistency to actionconsistency.
Key words：corporate culture evaluation;advantage characteristic identification;competitive advantage evaluation and analysis;statedown insurance companies
赵希男在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
欧新煜在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
食品安全责任强制保险设计研究
肖振宇 唐汇龙
（南京审计学院金融学院，江苏 南京 211815）
［摘 要］ 食品安全问题越来越成为社会关注的焦点，本文通过对食品安全问题困境及其原因、食品安全责任强制保险的实施依据、运行机制设计和监管政策等方面的分析和研究，得到的基本结论是：在我国开展食品安全责任强制保险是可行的和必要的，这可能是促进我国食品安全问题解决的一个重要制度安排。
［关键词］ 食品安全;食品安全责任强制保险;机制设计
Study on Mechanism Design of Compulsory Liability Insurance of Food Safety
Xiao Zhenyu，Tang Huilong
(School of Finance，Nanjing Audit University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 211815)
Abstract：The issue of food safety has increasingly become the focus of attention. The paper analyzed the dilemma and reasons for food safety problems，regulatory policy，operational mechanism design and the foundation of compulsory liability insurance of food safety. It came to a conclusion that food safety liability compulsory insurance in China was currently necessary and feasible and it was an important institutional arrangement to resolve the plight of China’s food safety.
Key words：food safety;compulsory liability insurance of food safety;mechanism design
唐汇龙在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
中国保险市场垄断行为的认定和预防——从我国保险行业首例垄断案件谈起
贾林青
（中国人民大学法学院，北京 100872）
［摘 要］ 2012年，一个引人关注的话题是湖南省工商行政管理局查处保险行业垄断系列案件。显然，此案件不仅是国家主管机关正式立案查处的发生于中国保险市场深化发展阶段的垄断案件，更是我国《反垄断法》于2008年8月1日颁行以来依法予以行政处罚的首例保险行业垄断协议行为，它对于中国保险市场今后深化发展将产生重要的影响。反垄断是我国保险市场深化发展阶段需要解决的新问题。本文以上述的垄断协议案件为例，结合我国《反垄断法》的规定精神，归纳认定保险领域垄断行为的条件，并提出了在保险市场预防垄断行为的措施，用以维护我国保险市场的正当、公平的竞争秩序。
［关键词］ 保险市场；垄断行为；认定；预防
On Recognition and Prevention of Monopoly Behaviors in China’s Insurance Market
—Proceeding from the First Monopoly Case in China’s Insurance Industry
Jia Linqing
（China Law School of Renmin University,Beijing 100872）
Abstract：The Industrial and Commercial Administrative Bureau of Hunan Province investigated and treated a series of monopoly cases in China’s insurance industry,which drew wide attention in the year of 2012.Obviously,this is the first monopoly case processed by China’s related authority during the development deepening stage of China’s insurance market,and also the first monopoly agreement case ever met with administrative sanction after the Antimonopoly Law came into effect on August 1st,2008. So,this case has significant impacts on the development of China’s insurance market in the future. Antimonopoly is a new problem to be settled in the deepening stage of our insurance market. In this paper,in line with the spirit of antimonopoly law,the author,taking the case mentioned above as an example,generalized the conditions to recognize monopoly behaviors in insurance area,and proposed measures to prevent monopoly behaviors in the insurance market,so as to maintain a fair and just competition order.
Key words：insurance market;monopoly behavior;cognition;prevention
贾林青在《保险研究》上发表过的其他文章：
保险说明义务程序化蜕变后的保险消费者保护
罗 璨
（西南政法大学 民商法学院，重庆 401120）
［摘 要］ 保险说明义务面临被法院滥用的困局，凸显出此制度程序化蜕变的既定事实与保险消费者保护目标之间的冲突。其根源在于，单个先合同阶段义务的制度供给与全方位消除保险消费者信息劣势的现实需求之间的矛盾。应借鉴德国关于先合同阶段义务群的立法经验，构筑以保险人和保险中介的建议义务、信息提供义务为主的先合同阶段义务群机制，以缓冲说明义务制度的适用压力，实现保护保险消费者的公平目标。
［关键词］ 保险说明义务；程序说明义务；保险技术原理；保险消费者；先合同阶段义务群
Protection of Insurance Consumers When Facing with Procedural Insurance Explanation Obligation
Luo Can
(Civil and Commercial Law School，Southwest University of Political Science and Law，Chongqing 401120)
Abstract：The predicament that courts abuse the explanation obligation rule highlights the conflict between the fact of this procedural obligation and the goal of insurance consumer protection. Its roots lie in the contradiction between the realistic needs of the rules to eliminate insurance consumer’s information disadvantage and the supply of a single rule when concluding a contract. We should draw on the legislative experiences of the German insurance contract law，build obligations system at precontract stage which includes obligations of recommendation and providing information，to reduce the burden of applying the explanation obligation rule and reach the fair aim of insurance consumer protection.
Key words：insurance explanation obligation;procedural explanation obligation;insurance technology principle;insurance consumers;obligations at precontract stage
我国商业医疗保险与社会医疗保险发展协调度研究
郑荣鸣 华 俊
（厦门大学经济学院金融系，福建 厦门 361005）
［摘 要］ 近年来我国社会医疗保险制度的建设取得了长足的进展，社会医疗保险制度已在全国普遍建立，但是保障水平还有待提高。随着人口老龄化加剧，我国医疗保障缺口不断扩大，给国家财政造成沉重负担。本文运用复合系统协调度模型对我国商业医疗保险与社会医疗保险发展的协调度进行实证研究，结果表明，我国大部分省市处于商业医疗保险发展滞后状态。应该充分发挥商业医疗保险的补充作用，实现商业医疗保险与社会医疗保险的相互协作、共同发展，才能有效建立和完善我国多层次的国家医疗保障体系。
［关键词］ 商业医疗保险；社会医疗保险；发展协调度
The Degree of Coordination between Commercial Medical Insurance and Social Medical Insurance in China
Zheng Rongming，Hua Jun
(Financial Department，the School of Economics，Xiamen University，FuJian Xiamen 361005)
Abstract：The construction of social medical insurance system in China has made great progress in recent years. The social medical insurance system has been established all over the country，but the social security level needs to be improved. As the aging of population intensifies，China''s medical security gap has been widening，causing huge burdens to the fiscal system. In this paper，the coordination degrees between commercial medical insurance and social medical insurance in our country were studied empirically. The results showed that commercial medical insurance was underdeveloped in majority provinces of China. The complementary role of the commercial medical insurance should be given full play in order to achieve effective cooperation between commercial medical insurance and social medical insurance and establish a multilevel medical security system.
Key words：commercial medical insurance;social medical insurance;coordination degree
农民工养老保险的选择——基于替代率的研究
郭 瑜
（中国人民大学劳动人事学院，北京 100872）
［摘 要］ 经过数年探索与实验，中央政府计划通过新农保和城镇职工养老保险的双重选择来覆盖农民工群体。这两种养老保险体系能在多大程度上保障农民工的退休生活？本文通过数值模拟对农民工养老保险的替代率问题做出预测与分析。结果显示新农保替代率较低，只具有基础性保障作用；城保制度要求参保人持续高额缴费，因此具有高且稳定的替代率。对于亦农亦工的农民工群体，本文重点指出了农民工参加养老保险的“夹心层”问题，并提出相应的政策建议。
［关键词］ 农民工；城镇职工养老保险；新农保；替代率
Pension Insurance Options for Rural WorkersBased on Replacement Research
Guo Yu
(School of Labor and Human Resources，Renmin University，Beijing 100872)
Abstract：After years of experiments and exploration，the central government has decided to cover all rural workers with the newtype rural social pension system and the social pension insurance for urban employees. To what extent can these two systems ensure the retirement life of rural workers? The paper made a projection and analysis of the replacement ratio of rural workers’ social pension plans. The results showed that the newtype rural social pension system had a rather low replacement ratio，providing only very basic protection. The urban plan required participants to pay high premiums consistently，therefore offering a high and stable replacement ratio. The paper specifically brought forwards the pension issues for rural workers，who were sandwiched between urban and rural pension systems，and offered some suggestions.
Key words：rural workers;social pension insurance for urban employees;the newtype rural social pension system;replacement ratio
我国养老保险的财务可持续性研究
王晓军1 任文东2,3
（1.中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心，北京 100872；2.中国人民大学统计学院，北京 100872；
3.山东财经大学统计学院，山东 济南 250014）
［摘 要］ 在人口老龄化压力下，世界各国的公共养老金大多面临可持续发展的挑战，从而纷纷实施各种改革，以帮助恢复系统的财务偿付能力。在我国，从2011年7月开始实施的《社会保险法》对社会保险制度提出财务可持续发展的要求，但实践中并没有建立起相应的财务风险管理系统，相关的理论研究比较缺乏。本文在讨论社会养老保险财务可持续性的内涵和度量方法的基础上，通过建立精算评估模型，对我国社会养老保险的未来收支和长期精算平衡进行了测算分析。结果表明，如果不对现行制度实施改革，制度在未来的发展中将会面临支付赤字。建立多层次养老金体系，并采取提高退休年龄和调整待遇等改革措施，将会有效缓解制度的财务压力，有助于制度的财务可持续发展。
［关键词］ 人口老龄化；养老保险；精算模型；财务可持续性
Studies on the Financial Sustainability of Social Pension System in China
Wang Xiaojun1,Ren Wendong2,3
(1.Center for Applied Statistics，Renming University，Beijing 100872;
2.School of Statistics，Renming University，Beijing 100872;
3.School of Statisticsof Shandong University of Finance and Economics，Jinan 250014)
Abstract：As a result of global population ageing and economic slowdown，the public pension systems worldwide are facing with significant financial unsustainability and have to be reformed. In China，the Social Insurance Act implemented in 2011 has the requirement of financial sustainability for social pension system，but there are no financial risk management system in practice and related theoretical study on it. In this paper，we discussed the concept of financial sustainability of social pension systems and the method to measure it，and then built a long term actuarial model to evaluate the financial income，outgo and balance. The result was that，the current system would face with a serious financial insolvency problem in the future if the current system was not reformed. Lifting retirement age and cutting the benefit would help to recover financial balance but need to develop a multipillar system to provide adequate pension benefit.
Key words：population ageing;social pension system;actuarial models;financial sustainability
王晓军在《保险研究》上发表的其他文章：
Lee-Carter模型在中国城市人口死亡率预测中的应用与改进